Thursday, November 8, 2012

Will the Mavi Marmara Trial Spoil Turkish-Israeli Relations for Good ...

ISTANBUL ? In the early hours of May 31, 2010, Israeli commandos repelled onto the deck of a Turkish ship, the Mavi Marmara, as it was about to run a blockade of the Gaza Strip. The result was a tragic mess. Nine Turkish passengers died in the fray. Turkey?s pragmatic friendship with Israel fell apart, endangering one of the few relationships in the Middle East that could help to stabilize the region.

Since then, the challenge has been how not to make things worse. The issue resurfaced Tuesday in Istanbul?s Palace of Justice with the opening of the trial in absentia of four former Israeli military chiefs responsible for the raid, who are charged, among other things, with ?inciting murder through cruelty or torture.?

Turkish anger with Israel may not have run its course, but it does seem to have lost its edge.

The Turkish government may be pursuing what it believes to be a genuine grievance, but it risks being accused of cynicism ? whipping up anti-Israeli sentiment at home and courting popularity in its Arab near abroad.

Although to the victims? families who packed the courtroom, the case is open and shut, not all the world sees it that way. A 2011 UN investigation [pdf] into the clash found fault all around. It was respectful of Israel?s right to maintain a blockade but critical of its use of lethal force. Yet it acknowledged that the Israeli troops encountered violent resistance when they attempted to board the vessel.

The Israeli government?s response to the Turkish prosecutors? case against the Israeli generals has been to label it ?a show trial.? Given the liberal sprinkling of billboards all over Istanbul summoning people to demonstrate in front of the courthouse, it might have a point.

The Islamic nongovernmental organization that organized the Mavi Marmara voyage ? the I.H.H. Humanitarian Relief Foundation ? declares in its advertisements that Israel itself will be put in the ?felon?s dock.? For the group and its sympathizers, the trial is a chance to make their voices heard. ?Martyr?s blood should not be spilled in vain,? said Habibe Salvarli, a 22-year-old student who made the five-hour bus trip from Karahisar, in western Turkey, with other students assembled through the Internet.

Yet the planned demonstrations outside the courthouse turned into a desultory affair. On Tuesday, small groups of bearded men waved a giant Turkish flag, shouting ?God is great!? and Israel be damned. Vendors sold Palestinian flags and headbands with Koranic inscriptions. But only a few hundred people showed up in total, not enough to fill the plaza in front of the court. At one point they were out-shouted by rival protesters demanding the acquittal of four women on trial for demonstrating against the prime minister?s (now-abandoned) proposal to outlaw abortion.

Turkish anger with Israel may not have run its course, but it does seem to have lost its edge. An important explanation is that the whole Middle East has been transformed since the Mavi Marmara incident. Back in the spring of 2010, the conventional wisdom here was that Israel would pay the greater price for offending so important an ally. In the intervening two and a half years, Turkey, too, has been losing friends.

It now leads the chorus calling for the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It is at odds with the Shiite-led government of Iraq for providing sanctuary to the fugitive Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, who has been sentenced to death for his alleged involvement in a car bombing that targeted Shiites. This, in turn, has badly strained Turkey?s relations with Iran.

Turkey?s creeping isolation within its own neighborhood has drawn it closer than ever to an old ally, the United States. Some commentators now speak of Ankara and Washington entering a ?golden age.? President Barack Obama is known to consult with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey regularly ? even though he has yet to convince Erdogan to lead a coalition of the willing into Syria.

Yet on the subject of Israel, the two men are not on the same page, and this chokes Turkey?s influence in Washington. The Obama administration may wish that it had the same liberty as Erdogan to discipline Israel, but it is wary that Erdogan may go too far: He recently announced his intention to visit Gaza, presumably an attempt to use foreign policy to increase his standing with his own electorate. But a Turkey that flirts with the anti-Zionist rhetoric common in the Middle East isn?t nearly as appealing to the Americans as a Turkey that can speak to Israel.

Turkish justice moves slowly, and the case against those who gave the order to storm the Mavi Marmara will limp on for months, if not years. Meanwhile, Turkey will not abandon its demand for an apology from Israel and for compensation for the victims ? or for the lifting of the Gaza blockade. And if the Israeli government hems and haws before giving in to the first two conditions, it will not on the third. This means that Turkish-Israeli relations will not be mended until a solution is found for the misery in the Gaza Strip.


Andrew Finkel has been a foreign correspondent in Istanbul for over 20 years, as well as a columnist for Turkish-language newspapers. He is the author of the book ?Turkey: What Everyone Needs to Know.?

Source: http://latitude.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/turkish-israeli-relations-on-trial/

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